The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is tasked with streamlining government operations, reducing wasteful spending, and improving overall efficiency within the federal government. Spearheaded by Elon Musk, this initiative has the potential to significantly reshape the government contracting landscape and the business of many federal vendors. The TechnoMile Research team, leveraging data from GovSearchAI, has created an analysis that measures the relative impact of recent DOGE activity on federal contractors, which, to date, includes nearly 700 affected vendors.
Assessing DOGE Impact
When assessing the impact of DOGE activity, the TechnoMile Research team considers unexercised ceiling and options value, which represents the difference between the total potential value of a federal contract and the amount of work that has, to date, been ordered and funded by an agency and publicly reported – in simple terms, it’s contract value that is not yet realized and therefore could be at risk. Consequently, unexercised ceiling and options value provides a forward-looking indicator that allows us to “size up” the potential impact of DOGE initiatives on individual federal contractors, specific agencies, and categories of federal spend.
Summary of Analysis: Scrutiny of Spend with Top 10 Consulting Firms
For this analysis, our team focused on the vendors that comprise the top 10 consulting firms contracting with the federal government. Recently, Stephen Ehikian, acting administrator of the General Services Administration (GSA), which serves as the U.S. government’s main procurement arm, issued a memo calling for procurement officials at federal agencies to identify their contracts with the top-contracted consultants and justify those contracts they intend to keep. Ehikian cited the need to “eliminate non-essential consulting contracts” in an effort to be “consistent with the goals and directives of the Trump administration to eliminate waste, reduce spending, and increase efficiency.”
Much uncertainty remains about how this directive will play out. In particular, it’s unclear exactly which work will be deemed mission critical or essential to an agency’s ability to fulfill its statutory purpose, and how DOGE will ultimately assess the value that these consultants bring to federal operations. In light of these ambiguities, our Research team declined to calculate TechnoMile’s proprietary DOGE Impact Score for each impacted federal vendor and instead focused on a broader market analysis to answer these core questions:
- What is the unrealized value of federal contracts across the top 10 consulting firms?
- Who are the federal vendors impacted by this directive and how much contract value is at risk for each?
- What types of work are these consulting firms performing for the U.S. government and what is the value of this at-risk work?
- Which agencies do the top 10 consulting firms support and how much contract value is at risk at each agency?
What is the unrealized value of the top 10 consulting firms’ contracts?
The total unexercised ceiling + options value of the top 10 consulting firms’ federal contracts is more than $94B.
Who are the impacted vendors and how much contract value is at risk for each?
The table above includes the top 10 consulting firms, along with the total unexercised ceiling + options value (in $ billions) of each vendor’s contracts across all federal agencies and categories of spend. This value represents each vendor’s maximum exposure, however significant uncertainty remains regarding the eventual impact of this GSA mandate – i.e., how much of this work will ultimately be identified as mission critical to federal operations and therefore be retained.
This tree map visualizes the relative magnitude of at-risk contract value across the top 10 consulting firms, with contracts held by Leidos and Booz Allen Hamilton comprising nearly half (48%) of the unexercised ceiling + options value.
What types of work are these consulting firms performing for the U.S. government and what is the value of this at-risk work?
The top three categories of federal spending among the top 10 consulting firms comprise 50% of the total unexercised ceiling + options value. These categories include:
- Management & Advisory Services – $25.3B unexercised ceiling + options value (27% of total)
- Application – $13.6B unexercised ceiling + options value (14% of total)
- Technical & Engineering Services – $8.7B unexercised ceiling + options value (9% of total)
Additional categories with more than $1 billion worth of unexercised ceiling + options value include:
- Technology Base
- Equipment Modification
- IT Management
- IT Outsourcing
- Research & Development
- Systems Development
- Security Services
- Social Services
- Equipment Maintenance
- Logistics Support Services
- Operational Systems Development
- Ammunition & Explosives
The image above visualizes the at-risk contract value across the top 43 categories of federal spending among the top 10 consulting firms (hover over the image and click to increase its size; hit escape to close the magnified image). Interested in seeing the vendor-specific details behind each category? Get a copy of the TechnoMile DOGE Impact Analysis: Top 10 Consulting Firms here.
Which agencies do the top 10 consulting firms support and how much contract value is at risk at each agency?
This image visualizes the at-risk contract value across the federal agencies served by the top 10 consulting firms (hover over the image and click to increase its size; hit escape to close the magnified image). Unsurprisingly, more than half (55%) of the at-risk contract value is made up of contracts with the Department of Defense.
Together, the top five agencies, based on at-risk contract value with the top 10 consulting firms, make up 83% of the total unexercised ceiling + options value. These agencies include:
- Department of Defense – $52.1B unexercised ceiling + options value (55% of total)
- Department of Transportation – $8.5B unexercised ceiling + options value (9% of total)
- Department of Homeland Security – $7.4B unexercised ceiling + options value (8% of total)
- Department of Health & Human Services – $6.1B unexercised ceiling + options value (6% of total)
- Department of Veterans Affairs – $4.3B unexercised ceiling + options value (5% of total)
Key Takeaways
While DOGE’s focus on government efficiency and cost reduction has and will undoubtedly create new challenges for federal vendors, it can also create opportunities for those businesses that can adapt and innovate.
- New Efficiencies in B2G Companies – DOGE’s strong focus on cost efficiency could increase competition among federal contractors, necessitating that B2G organizations improve their own operational efficiency, including investment in back-office tools and technology used to win and manage federal contracts.
- Unlocking Innovation in B2G Companies – DOGE’s emphasis on modernization could cultivate even more innovation within organizations that do business with the government, and these cutting-edge strategies could result in a competitive advantage for vendors.
- Disruption in B2G Procurement Processes – DOGE’s initiatives could disrupt existing, often long-time relationships with agency personnel and require companies to adapt their business development and capture strategies and processes. Federal contractors need to be prepared for a wave of changes to procurement processes and regulations, agency POCs, contract requirements, and timelines.
Wrapping Up and Next Steps
TechnoMile, a veteran of the federal contracting community for over a decade, remains committed to supporting its customers and the broader industry as we navigate the current turbulent environment. While acknowledging the value of the DOGE initiative, TechnoMile emphasizes its dedication to providing members of the federal marketplace with essential data and insights to inform strategic decision making in this rapidly evolving landscape of government contracting.
If you’d like to receive a copy of the TechnoMile DOGE Impact Analysis: Top 10 Consulting Firms, click here.